Jakarta, ThedailyID — A secret US Central Intelligence Agency assessment reportedly warns that Israel could face civil war or even state collapse.
The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” reportedly examines growing political, economic and social divisions inside Israel.
According to Drop Site News, the assessment was prepared in August by the CIA’s Red Cell. The unit challenges prevailing intelligence assumptions and explores alternative scenarios.
Two US sources familiar with the assessment reportedly provided information about its contents. The CIA did not respond to a request for comment from the outlet.
The assessment reportedly highlights several pressures facing Israel ahead of the October 27 election. These include economic problems, high military spending and anger over exemptions from mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men.
It also points to rising violence by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank as another source of internal tension.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to remain in power reportedly add further political and constitutional tensions. The assessment suggests these pressures could deepen existing divisions within Israeli society.
The report also links Israel’s prolonged wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran to growing internal fractures. Returning soldiers reportedly face serious psychological trauma after lengthy periods of combat.
The dispute over military service has emerged as another major source of tension. Dissatisfaction has reportedly increased over exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox Jewish men.
The CIA assessment also reportedly points to Israel’s growing international isolation. It identifies weakening US support for Israel as another factor that could add pressure to the country’s internal stability.
The assessment does not establish that Israel will collapse or descend into civil war. Instead, it reportedly warns that continued political, economic and social fractures could increase the risk of such outcomes.
