Jakarta, ThedailyID — Several regions across Indonesia recorded extreme temperatures in October 2026, with the highest reaching 38.2°C. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) attributed the hot and dry conditions to the combined effects of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
BMKG recorded a sea surface temperature anomaly of positive 3.33°C in the Niño 3.4 region in early October. The agency also reported an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index of positive 3.08 for August to October, alongside a positive IOD index of 0.703.
These climate patterns can reduce cloud formation and rainfall across Indonesia. As a result, prolonged dry conditions have increased the risk of forest and land fires.
BMKG identified 1,297 hotspots across the country. Sumatra recorded the highest number at 505, followed by Kalimantan with 346 and Papua and Maluku with 330 combined. Sulawesi recorded 66 hotspots, Nusa Tenggara 38, and Java 12.
Limited cloud cover has also allowed more solar radiation to reach the ground, pushing temperatures above 37°C in several areas.
BMKG recorded the following highest temperatures on October 12–13, 2026:
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Lampung: 38.2°C
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West Java: 37.8°C
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Central Java: 37.8°C
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South Papua: 37.4°C
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South Kalimantan: 37.4°C
The hot conditions could persist as Indonesia approaches the 2026–2027 rainy season. BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said the combination of El Niño and positive IOD could delay the rainy season and shorten its duration in many areas.
The agency expects most parts of Indonesia to experience peak rainfall between December 2026 and February 2027.
BMKG climatology deputy Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan also projected a shorter-than-normal rainy season across 482 Climate Zones, covering 51.90% of Indonesia’s land area. Meanwhile, 60 zones covering 8.58% could experience a longer rainy season, while 40 zones covering 5.06% are expected to follow normal patterns.
